基于Maxent模型的棉花曲叶病在中国的适生性分析

doi:10.11963/issn.1002-7807.201605003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 棉花曲叶病是棉花上一种毁灭性的病害，其主要病原木尔坦棉花曲叶病毒（Cotton leaf curl Multan virus，CLCuMuV）已入侵我国广东、广西、海南、福建、云南和江苏等地，明确其可能的适生区域对该病毒病的科学监测和综合防控意义重大。本研究以棉花曲叶病的分布数据为基础，综合考虑其传播介体烟粉虱、中间寄主朱槿、寄主棉花的分布区域，利用Maxent模型对棉花曲叶病在中国的潜在适生区进行预测。结果表明，长江流域棉区、黄河流域棉区的大部分区域都属于棉花曲叶病的适生区，而西北内陆棉区的适生程度较低，大部分为低度适生区；其中，高度适生区主要集中在长江流域棉区的湖南、江西、浙江、安徽、江苏、湖北，此区域也适宜朱槿的种植。因此，华南地区已流行危害的木尔坦棉花曲叶病毒向北入侵到我国棉花主产区的风险极高，其中长江流域棉区将是该病害发生及防控的重点区域。

关键词: 棉花曲叶病; 木尔坦棉花曲叶病毒; 烟粉虱; 朱槿; 适生区

Abstract: Cotton leaf curl disease (CLCuD) is a destructive disease of cotton. Cotton leaf curl Multan virus, one of the main pathogens of the disease, has invaded the Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Fujian, Yunnan, and Jiangsu Provinces of China. A better understanding of the potential establishment area of the disease will, therefore, be beneficial in anticipating the spread of CLCuD and help to rapidly eradicate its presence in Chinese cotton-growing regions. Based on published data recording global incidences of CLCuD, the potential geographic distribution of the disease was analyzed using an ecological niche model (Maxent) and ArcGIS in conjunction with the distribution of the virus-transmitting vector Bemisia tabaci, the host plant Gossypium hirsutum, and the intermediate host plant Hibiscus rosa-sinensis. The modeling results indicated that cotton-growing regions in the Yangtze River valley and Yellow River valley were relatively likely potential target regions for the disease, while the northwest inland cotton-growing region was categorized as having a low potential for disease distribution. The region with the highest CLCuD distribution potential was the cotton-growing region covering the Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Hubei Provinces within the Yangtze River valley that also represented suitable planting areas for the intermediate host plant H. rosa-sinensis. Therefore, Cotton leaf curl Multan virus that has already invaded many areas of Southern China poses a serious national-wide threat to cotton production, with the cotton-growing regions in the Yangtze River valley representing the best focus area for the prevention and control of CLCuD.

Key words: cotton leaf curl disease; Cotton leaf curl Multan virus; Bemisia tabaci; Hibiscus rosa-sinensis; potential geographic distribution

中图分类号:

S435.621

齐国君, 陈婷, 何自福, 吕利华. 基于Maxent模型的棉花曲叶病在中国的适生性分析[J]. 棉花学报, 2016, 28(5): 443-451.

Qi Guojun, Chen Ting, He Zifu, Lü Lihua. Maxent Model-based Analysis of the Potential Geographic Distribution of Cotton Leaf Curl Disease in China[J]. Cotton Science, 2016, 28(5): 443-451.

0
/ / 推荐

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks

链接本文: http://journal.cricaas.com.cn/Jweb_mhxb/CN/10.11963/issn.1002-7807.201605003

http://journal.cricaas.com.cn/Jweb_mhxb/CN/Y2016/V28/I5/443

参考文献

[1] Harrison B D, Liu Y L, Khalid S, et al. Detection and relationships of cotton leaf curl virus and allied whitefly-transmitted geminiviruses occurring in Pakistan[J]. Annals of Applied Biology, 1997, 130(1): 61-75. [2] Nateshan H M, Muniyappa V, Swanson M M, et al. Host range, vector relations and serological relationships of cotton leaf curl virus from southern India[J]. Annals of Applied Biology, 1996, 128(2): 233-244. [3] Abdel-Salam A M. Isolation and characterization of a whitefly-transmitted geminivirus associated with leaf curl and mosaic symptoms in cotton in Egypt[J]. Arab Journal of Biotechnology, 1999, 2(2): 193-218. [4] Briddon R W. Cotton leaf curl disease, a multicomponent begomovirus complex[J]. Molecular Plant Pathology, 2003, 4(6): 427-434. [5] Briddon R W, Markham P G. Cotton leaf curl virus disease[J]. Virus Research, 2000, 71(1/2):151-159. [6] Zhou X P, Liu Y L, Robinson D J, et al. Four DNA-A variants among Pakistani isolates of cotton leaf curl virus and their affinities to DNA-A of geminivirus isolates from okra[J]. Journal of General Virology, 1998, 79(4): 915-923. [7] Mansoor S, Briddon R W, Bull S E, et al. Cotton leaf curl disease is associated with multiple monopartite begomoviruses supported by single DNA β[J]. Archives of Virology, 2003, 148(10): 1969- 1986. [8] 毛明杰, 何自福, 虞皓, 等. 侵染朱槿的木尔坦棉花曲叶病毒及其卫星DNA全基因组结构特征[J]. 病毒学报, 2008, 24(1): 64-68. Mao Mingjie, He Zifu, Yu Hao, et al. Molecular characterization of Cotton leaf curl Multan virus and its satellite DNA that infects Hibiscus rosa-siensis[J]. Chinese Journal of Virology, 2008, 24(1): 64-68. [9] 董迪, 何自福, 柴兆祥. 广东黄秋葵黄脉曲叶病样中检测到烟粉虱传双生病毒[J]. 植物保护, 2010, 36(1): 65-68. Dong Di, He Zifu, Chai Zhaoxiang. Detection of whitefly-transmitted geminivirus associated with the okra yellow vein leaf curl disease in Guangdong[J]. Plant Protection, 2010, 36(1): 65-68. [10] 林林, 蔡健和, 罗恩波, 等. 南宁市朱槿曲叶病毒病病原分子鉴定和寄主范围研究[J]. 植物保护, 2011, 37(4): 44-47. Lin Lin, Cai Jianhe, Luo Enbo, et al. Molecular identification and host range of a geminivirus infecting Hibiscus in Nanning city[J]. Plant Protection, 2011, 37(4): 44-47. [11] 章松柏, 夏宣喜, 张洁, 等. 福州市发生由木尔坦棉花曲叶病毒引起的朱槿曲叶病[J]. 植物保护, 2013, 39(2): 196-200. Zhang Songbai, Xia Xuanxi, Zhang Jie, et al. A leaf curl disease on Hibiscus rosa-sinensis in Fuzhou caused by Cotton leaf curl Multan virus[J]. Plant Protection, 2013, 39(2): 196-200. [12] 汤亚飞, 何自福, 杜振国, 等. 侵染垂花悬铃花的木尔坦棉花曲叶病毒分子特征研究[J]. 植物病理学报, 2013, 43(2): 120- 127. Tang Yafei, He Zifu, Du Zhenguo, et al. Molecular characterization of Cotton leaf curl Multan virus infecting Malvaiscus arboreus[J]. Acta Phytopathologica Sinica, 2013, 43(2): 120-127. [13] 唐远, 陆永跃. 广东地区引起扶桑黄化曲叶病的病毒种类确定[J]. 广东农业科学, 2013, 40(10): 80-82. Tang Yuan, Lu Yongyue. Confirmation of the virus infecting and causing the Hibiscus rosa-sinensis yellow leaf curl disease in Guangdong[J]. Guangdong Agricultural Sciences, 2013, 40(10): 80-82. [14] 张晖, 季英华, 吴淑华, 等. 江苏朱槿上分离到的木尔坦棉花曲叶病毒基因组结构特征分析[J]. 植物病理学报, 2015, 45(4): 361-369. Zhang Hui, Ji Yinghua, Wu Shuhua, et al. Identification and characterization of Cotton leaf curl Multan virus from Hibiscus rosa-sinensis in Jiangsu[J]. Acta Phytopathologica Sinica, 2015, 45(4): 361-369. [15] Cai J H, Xie K, Lin L, et al. Cotton leaf curl Multan virus newly reported to be associated with cotton leaf curl disease in China[J]. Plant Pathology, 2010, 59(4): 794-795. [16] 何自福, 佘小漫, 汤亚飞. 入侵我国的木尔坦棉花曲叶病毒及其为害[J]. 生物安全学报, 2012, 21(2): 87-92. He Zifu, Shen Xiaoman, Tang Yafei. Cotton leaf curl Multan virus invading China and its damage potential[J]. Journal of Biosafety, 2012, 21(2): 87-92. [17] 丁小兰, 赵竹, 李明福. 棉花曲叶病毒研究进展[J]. 植物检疫, 2013, 27(1): 68-72. Ding Xiaolan, Zhao Zhu, Li Mingfu. Advances of research on cotton leaf curl virus[J]. Plant Quarantine, 2013, 27(1): 68-72. [18] 罗晨, 张芝利. 烟粉虱Bemisia tabaci (Germadius)研究概述[J]. 北京农业科学, 2000, 18(增): 4-13. Luo Chen, Zhang Zhili. Study progress on Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius)[J]. Beijing Agricultural Sciences, 2000, 18(S): 4-13. [19] 郭荣. 对棉花生产构成严重威胁的病害—棉花曲叶病毒病[J]. 中国植保导刊,2005, 25(2):46-47. Guo Rong. A serious threat of cotton leaf curl virus disease to cotton production[J]. China Plant Protection, 2005, 25(2): 46-47. [20] 张永江, 李明福, 辛言言, 等. 应用纳米磁珠荧光PCR检测棉花曲叶病毒[J]. 棉花学报, 2013, 25 (1): 90-94. Zhang Y J, Li M F, Xin Y Y, et al. Detection of cotton leaf curl virus by real-time fluorescent PCR combining with magnetic nanoparticles[J]. Cotton Science, 2013, 25 (1): 90-94. [21] 饶玉燕, 沈玲丽, 朱水芳, 等. 棉花曲叶病毒对棉花造成的经济损失评估[J]. 植物检疫, 2011, 25(3): 12-16. Rao Yuyan, Shen Lingli, Zhu Shuifang, et al. The economic losses of cotton leaf curl virus invading China on cotton[J]. Plant Quarantine, 2011, 25(3): 12-16. [22] 陈彬, 苏永强, 李炳球. 收集朱槿品种的研究初报[J]. 广东园林, 1987, 9(4): 28-37. Chen Bin, Su Yongqiang, Li Bingqiu. The preliminary study on collection of Hibiscus rosa-sinensis[J]. Guangdong Landscape Architecture, 1987, 9(4): 28-37. [23] Phillips S J, Schapire R E, Dudik M. A maximum entropy approach to species distribution modeling[M] // Proceedings of the 21st international conference on machine learning. New York: ACM Press, 2004, 655-662. [24] Phillips S J, Anderson R P, Schapire R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2006, 190(3/4): 231-259. [25] Phillips S J, Dudík M. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J]. Ecography, 2008, 31(2): 161-175. [26] Elith J, Phillips S J, Hastie T, et al. A statistical explanation of Maxent for ecologists[J]. Diversity and Distributions, 2011, 17(1): 43-57. [27] 王运生, 谢丙炎, 万方浩, 等. ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J]. 生物多样性, 2007, 15(4): 365-372. Wang Yunsheng, Xie Bingyan, Wan Fanghao, et al. Application of ROC curve analysis in evaluating the performance of alien species' potential distribution models[J]. Biodiversity Science, 2007, 15(4): 365-372. [28] 齐国君, 高燕, 黄德超, 等. 基于Maxent的稻水象甲在中国的入侵扩散动态及适生性分析[J]. 植物保护学报, 2012, 39(2): 129-136. Qi Guojun, Gao Yan, Huang Dechao, et al. Historical invasion, expansion process and the potential geographic distributions for the rice water weevil, Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus in China based on Maxent[J]. Acta Phytophylacica Sinica, 2012, 39(2): 129- 136. [29] 齐国君, 陈婷, 高燕, 等. 基于Maxent的大洋臀纹粉蚧和南洋臀纹粉蚧在中国的适生区分析[J]. 环境昆虫学报, 2015, 37(2): 219-223. Qi Guojun, Chen Ting, Gao Yan, et al. Potential geographic distribution of Planococcus minor and P. lilacinus in China based on Maxent[J]. Journal of Environmental Entomology, 2015, 37(2): 219-223. [30] 郑耘, 杨伟东, 章桂明, 等. 李痘病毒适生区预测及模型选择[J]. 植物检疫, 2009, 23(3): 1-4. Zheng Yun, Yang Weidong, Zhang Guiming, et al. Model selection & potential distribution of Plum pox virus[J]. Plant Quarantine, 2009, 23(3): 1-4. [31] 何自福, 董迪, 李世访, 等. 木尔坦棉花曲叶病毒已对我国棉花生产构成严重威胁[J]. 植物保护, 2010, 36(2): 147-149. He Zifu, Dong Di, Li Shifang, et al. Threat of Cotton leaf curl Multan virus to China cotton production[J]. Plant Protection, 2010, 36(2): 147-149. [32] 何冲, 孙介菲, 范怀忠. 番茄黄顶病的初步研究[J]. 植物保护学报, 1965, 4(1):103-106. He Chong, Sun Jiefei, Fan Huaizhong. The preliminary study on the tomato yellow top disease[J]. Acta Phytophylacica Sinica, 1965, 4(1):103-106. [33] 李小靖, 叶志彪. 我国番茄黄化曲叶病发生规律和研究进展[J]. 长江蔬菜, 2010(2): 1-5. Li Xiaojing, Ye Zhibiao. Occurrence rule and development of tomato yellow leaf curl virus disease in China[J]. Journal of Changjiang Vegetables, 2010(2): 1-5. [34] 张升, 何伟, 杨华, 等. 新疆发生番茄黄化曲叶病毒病[J]. 新疆农业科学, 2012, 49(1): 105-107. Zhang Sheng, He Wei, Yang Hua, et al. Occurrence and control of tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) disease in Xinjiang[J]. Xinjiang Agricultural Sciences, 2012, 49(1): 105-107. [35] Zhou X P, Xie Y, Tao X R, et al. Characterization of DNA β associated with begomoviruses in China and evidence for co-evolution with their cognate viral DNA-A[J]. Journal of General Virology, 2003, 4(1): 237-247. [36] Pan H P, Chu D, Yan W Q, et al. Rapid spread of Tomato yellow leaf curl virus in China is aided differentially by two invasive whiteflies[J]. PLoS One, 2012, 7(4): e34817.