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基于Maxent模型的棉花曲叶病在中国的适生性分析

齐国君,陈婷,何自福,吕利华*   

  1. 广东省农业科学院植物保护研究所/广东省植物保护新技术重点实验室,广州  510640
  • 收稿日期:2015-09-29 出版日期:2016-09-15 发布日期:2016-09-15
  • 通讯作者: lhlu@gdppri.com
  • 作者简介:齐国君(1985―),男,副研究员,super_qi@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    “十二五”国家科技支撑计划(2015BAD08B02);科技部科技伙伴计划(KY201402015);广州市科技计划项目(2013J4500032);国家国际科技合作计划(2011DFB30040)

Maxent Model-based Analysis of the Potential Geographic Distribution of Cotton Leaf Curl Disease in China

Qi Guojun, Chen Ting, He Zifu, Lü Lihua*   

  1. Plant Protection Research Institute, Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences/ Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of High Technology for Plant Protection, Guangzhou 510640, China
  • Received:2015-09-29 Online:2016-09-15 Published:2016-09-15

摘要: 棉花曲叶病是棉花上一种毁灭性的病害,其主要病原木尔坦棉花曲叶病毒(Cotton leaf curl Multan virus,CLCuMuV)已入侵我国广东、广西、海南、福建、云南和江苏等地,明确其可能的适生区域对该病毒病的科学监测和综合防控意义重大。本研究以棉花曲叶病的分布数据为基础,综合考虑其传播介体烟粉虱、中间寄主朱槿、寄主棉花的分布区域,利用Maxent模型对棉花曲叶病在中国的潜在适生区进行预测。结果表明,长江流域棉区、黄河流域棉区的大部分区域都属于棉花曲叶病的适生区,而西北内陆棉区的适生程度较低,大部分为低度适生区;其中,高度适生区主要集中在长江流域棉区的湖南、江西、浙江、安徽、江苏、湖北,此区域也适宜朱槿的种植。因此,华南地区已流行危害的木尔坦棉花曲叶病毒向北入侵到我国棉花主产区的风险极高,其中长江流域棉区将是该病害发生及防控的重点区域。

关键词: 棉花曲叶病; 木尔坦棉花曲叶病毒; 烟粉虱; 朱槿; 适生区

Abstract: Cotton leaf curl disease (CLCuD) is a destructive disease of cotton. Cotton leaf curl Multan virus, one of the main pathogens of the disease, has invaded the Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Fujian, Yunnan, and Jiangsu Provinces of China. A better understanding of the potential establishment area of the disease will, therefore, be beneficial in anticipating the spread of CLCuD and help to rapidly eradicate its presence in Chinese cotton-growing regions. Based on published data recording global incidences of CLCuD, the potential geographic distribution of the disease was analyzed using an ecological niche model (Maxent) and ArcGIS in conjunction with the distribution of the virus-transmitting vector Bemisia tabaci, the host plant Gossypium hirsutum, and the intermediate host plant Hibiscus rosa-sinensis. The modeling results indicated that cotton-growing regions in the Yangtze River valley and Yellow River valley were relatively likely potential target regions for the disease, while the northwest inland cotton-growing region was categorized as having a low potential for disease distribution. The region with the highest CLCuD distribution potential was the cotton-growing region covering the Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Hubei Provinces within the Yangtze River valley that also represented suitable planting areas for the intermediate host plant H. rosa-sinensis. Therefore, Cotton leaf curl Multan virus that has already invaded many areas of Southern China poses a serious national-wide threat to cotton production, with the cotton-growing regions in the Yangtze River valley representing the best focus area for the prevention and control of CLCuD.

Key words: cotton leaf curl disease; Cotton leaf curl Multan virus; Bemisia tabaci; Hibiscus rosa-sinensis; potential geographic distribution

中图分类号: 
  • S435.621