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Risk assessment and regionalization of low temperature disaster at cotton seedling stage in Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang
Tang Xuelian, Huo Xunguo, Wang Xuejiao, Wang Sen, Zhang Lizhen, Zhang Yutong, Guo Yanyun, Zhang Shanqing, Sun Shuai, Li Shun’ao, Paerhati Maimaiti
PDF(14706 KB)
PDF(14706 KB)
Risk assessment and regionalization of low temperature disaster at cotton seedling stage in Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang
[Objective] Low temperature is one of the main agrometeorological disasters during the cotton seedling period in Aksu Prefecture of Xinjiang, which seriously limits the stability and safety of cotton production. Clarifying the risk areas of cotton low temperature disaster during cotton seedling period in Aksu Prefecture can effectively improve the defense ability of this region to cope with low temperature. [Methods] Based on the meteorological data of Aksu Prefecture from 1961 to 2020, the changing trends of daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily average temperature, and the changing frequency of low temperature disasters (cold wave and late frost injury) during the seedling period of cotton were analyzed by using the climatic tendency rate. The time distribution characteristics of cold wave and late frost injury in April to May were also analyzed. A comprehensive risk assessment model for low temperature disaster was established, and the risk regionalization of low temperature disaster during cotton seedling stage was carried out by analyzing the hazard index of low temperature disaster-inducing factors, and combining the exposure index of the hazard-bearing body, and local the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. [Results] From 1961 to 2020, the daily minimum temperature, daily maximum temperature, and daily average temperature during the cotton seedling period in Aksu Prefecture showed a significant increasing trend, and the frequency of cold wave and late frost injury showed a decreasing trend. The incidence of cold wave and late frost injury in Aksu Prefecture is below 20% after 10 April and 12 April, respectively. The risk level of spring low temperature disaster-causing factors in Aksu Prefecture showed the spatial distribution characteristics of “high in the north and low in the south, high in the west and low in the east”. The results of comprehensive risk regionalization indicated that the central and east-central areas of Aksu Prefecture, which including Aral City, the central part of Aksu City, the north-eastern part of Awati County, the eastern edge of Kalpin County, the eastern part of Xinhe County, the south-western and central part of Kuqa City, the northern part of Xayar County, and the south-eastern part of Wensu County are the highest or higher level risk zones of low temperature disaster. [Conclusion] Although the spring temperature increased, and the frequency of cold wave and late frost injury decreased in Aksu Prefecture, the risk of low temperature disaster is still high in the central and east-central cotton growing areas in Aksu Prefecture, and targeted measures are needed to be taken to mitigate the impact of low temperature disasters on cotton production.
cotton / cold wave / late frost injury / risk assessment / regionalization / seedling stage / Aksu Prefecture {{custom_keyword}} /
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