ÃÞ »¨ ѧ ±¨ Cotton Science 2010£¬22£¨1£©£º57-62
Research on Forecast Method of Cotton Mirids Abstract£ºThe cotton mirids in Pengze county£¬Jiangxi province, also show the possibility of the development from the secondary pest hazard to the main one. Wavelet analysis show that: nearly for 28 years, cotton mirids in the northern part of the Boyang Lake occurred as there is a clear hierarchy of 5-year and 6- to 8-year oscillation cycle. There showed a clear main 5-year cycle in 1990¨D1998, a 7- to 8-year main cycle before 1990, and a clear 6-7 years main cycle in 1999¨D2008. This also showed that cotton mirid occurrence, growth and decline exist "ecological inter-annual follow-up effect". Comparative analysis and correlation analysis showed that: the occurrence of cotton mirids had significant relevance with the winter climate and the short-term weather conditions. Based on the above-mentioned study, by the stepwise regression analysis, a long-term forecasting models and a long/short-term forecasting model of meteorological condition suitbility for cotton mirids were established, and the same experiment of forecasting was to promote the application of agro-climatic based on reliability.
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